Politico reported this week that “Spanberger is poised to win big in Virginia.”
Guess what? In this case, like a broken watch, twice a day, Politico’s relentless cheerleading for the Democrats is actually correct.
Virginia is just not a good state for Republicans. Which is a shame, because I remember the good old days. When I moved to Virginia from Pennsylvania in the early 2000s, I left a competitive Commonwealth in Pennsylvania for a conservative-but-Democrat-leaning Commonwealth that was expected to eventually become a heavily Republican Commonwealth in Virginia. Since then, while Pennsylvania has stayed basically the same, Virginia has gone from lean Democrat to lean Republican and back again.
The problem, as any political observer knows, is the federal government workers who have moved en masse to Northern Virginia. They are heavily Democrat, and now outvote the rest of the state. Virginia, like Florida (i.e., South New York), is now a Southern State In Name Only (SSINO).
Virginia is unusual in other ways as well. It has off-year elections, which makes the turnout rather low. It has a one-term limit for its governors, which means that no governor can be rewarded for a popular term with an easy reelection. This year, this means that popular Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin is not able to run again. And, it has a tradition of swinging against the incumbent president’s party, which has occurred for decades with only one exception – when my former boss Ken Cuccinelli narrowly lost to Terry McAuliffe in 2013, because of a yuge Democrat edge in campaign spending and some dirty Democrat politics of propping up a former-Republican-turned-libertarian-independent who siphoned off Republican votes.
All of this means that former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, the Democrat, has the edge over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, the Republican.
Both have credible backgrounds. Spanberger was in the CIA and entered politics by winning in an upset in a Congressional district that had gone from safely Republican to Democrat-leaning (see above), and holding on for two terms, so she was used to running in competitive races. Earle-Sears, a black Jamaican immigrant, was a former Marine who originally made a name for herself by winning in a yuge upset a state legislative district that was heavily black and Democrat, then running unsuccessfully for a black majority Congressional district, before rebounding in 2021 to win the number two statewide office, lieutenant governor, in a separate election from Gov. Youngkin (although surely being helped by his coattails). Either Spanberger or Earle-Sears would be the first female governor of Virginia, and Earle-Sears would also be the first African American female governor in the Commonwealth and in the nation.
Spanberger starts off with a substantial money edge. So far, Spanberger has raised $16.3 million in the first quarter compared with Earle-Sears’ $5.6 million, according to campaign finance reports. Now that the state legislative session is over, however, fundraising should get better for Sears.
Recent polling shows Spanberger with the lead as well. The Roanoke College Poll has Spanberger up 43 percent to 26 percent for Earle-Sears. This poll should be treated as suspect; no major party candidate should be below 30 points in a head-to-head in a competitive situation. But Harris X has Spanberger up 52 percent to 48 percent. And earlier polls also had Spanberger narrowly up.
Importantly, the polls show that independents are tilting Spanberger’s way, despite the popularity of Gov. Youngkin.
In an earlier column, I made the point that the attacks on Elon Musk and DOGE were mostly a non-starter for the Democrats. Virginia, however, is an exception, because the Commonwealth is so heavily dependent on federal jobs.
A recent analysis from the University of Virginia found that the state is projected to lose more than 9,000 government jobs, propelling a downturn in employment that is worrying state leaders.
It is quite possible that this analysis is itself flawed and political. But while the exact numbers may be off, logically, a state so heavy with federal workers is going to be very susceptible to concerns about Musk/DOGE.
The ad war has already begun. Spanberger has spent $643,000 so far, with Earle-Sears investing $873,000.
Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears have kicked off a new phase of the Virginia gubernatorial race, unveiling television ads to introduce themselves to voters across the state. Spanberger’s one-minute ad highlights her past service with the CIA and her current role as the U.S. Representative for Virginia’s 7th Congressional District. Earle-Sears, in her ad, emphasizes her background in the Marine Corps and her current position as Virginia’s Lieutenant Governor.
The first two Spanberger and Earle-Sears ads can be seen here. Other Earle-Sears ads are here and here. And here is an attack ad by Earle-Sears regarding Spanberger’s decision to cover for Joe Biden’s senility that was reported on by my colleagues at RedState.
GOP Infighting in Virginia Could Cast Shadow Over 2025 Governor’s Race
Unfortunately, my belief is that Politico is basically correct, and that Earle-Sears has her work cut out for her. In addition to the above facts, I expect the Democrats to come after Earle-Sears for her Christian faith. Moderates in Virginia are not particularly religious, and statements made by Sears regarding gays and abortion will certainly be used to portray her as some sort of religious fanatic. This is standard Democrat Politics 101.
Earle-Sears may be able to appeal to Virginia African Americans, who are normally heavily Democrat, and make up almost 20 percent of the population. And based on the presidential race of 2024, when Donald Trump won an unprecedented 20 percent of the black vote, they certainly could swing more to the right to back only the second black candidate for Virginia’s governor (after L. Douglas Wilder). But that remains to be seen.
One of my “little (political) birds” sums up what Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears’ main task right now is – stop focusing on the base and pivot to the general election. She is down, but not out, and there is a campaign to wage.
Progressive policies have hurt America immeasurably.
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