Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) has projected that Republicans will be headed to a runoff in the Texas Senate primary after no candidate passed the 50-percent-plus-one-vote threshold necessary to win the nomination. With more 65 percent of the vote counted, incumbent Sen. John Cornyn sits at 43.2 percent, with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton garnering 40.3 percent, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (TX-38) clocking in a distant third at 12.9 percent.
Cornyn and Paxton will now face off again on May 26.
Decision Desk HQ projects John Cornyn and Ken Paxton to advance to a runoff in the Republican primary for the Texas US Senate race.#DecisionMade: 10:20 pm ET
Follow live results on Votes. pic.twitter.com/OAh8jiEwNX
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) March 4, 2026
John Cornyn has been in the fight of his political life to hold onto the U.S. Senate seat he has occupied since 2002. Polls have shown him neck-and-neck with Paxton, with Hunt always coming in third. A recent University of Texas poll showed:
On the Republican side, the UT poll found Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn running neck-and-neck, with neither candidate close to the 50%-plus-one-vote threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Paxton led with 36% to Cornyn’s 34%. Houston U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt was in third, garnering 26% of the vote.
Earlier in the race, Paxton hit Cornyn with an ad blasting the senator for his seemingly close relationship with Democrat Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30), who’s running in the Democrat Senate primary. Interestingly, an Emerson College poll from January showed Cornyn had the best chance of defeating Crockett and her primary opponent, James Talarico, in the general election.
Going into Tuesday’s primary, prediction markets were bullish on Paxton’s chances of winning. Betting throughout the day had Paxton hovering around an 80 percent chance of defeating Cornyn and Hunt, and his chances of surpassing the 50-percent-plus-one-vote threshold skyrocketed to nearly 30 percent.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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