Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi took a page from President Trump’s playbook on Sunday, using social media to announce a major policy shift. Using the social media platform X as his vehicle, he sent a very pointed message to President Trump. “American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own,” he said, referring to the overwhelming repudiation suffered by the GOP in Tuesday’s midterm elections. “Our 2-day proposal stands: meet the requirements, including an end to war on all fronts, and you will see results. Or choose war, and see our alert and battle-hardened Warriors rain down hell.”
American voters have made their choice. Time for the White House to make its own. Our 2-day proposal stands: meet the requirements, including end to war on all fronts, and you will see results. Or choose war, and see our alert and battle-hardened Warriors rain down hell.
— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) November 8, 2026
If you haven’t been following the Sturm-und-Drang of the Iran negotiations, the “2-day proposal” is that the U.S. agrees to all of Iran’s demands and takes concrete steps to implement them all on Day One:
- Lifting newer U.S. sanctions imposed after the Islamabad MoU / previous collapse.
- Restoring oil-sale waivers/sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports.
- Releasing frozen Iranian assets.
- Ending the naval blockade of Iranian ports.
- Reducing U.S. military presence in the region to prior levels.
- Agreeing to remove the Strait of Hormuz as an international waterway and placing it under the joint management of Iran and Oman.
- Ending hostilities “on all fronts,” explicitly including Lebanon and Iraq.
On Day Two, if Iran is satisfied the U.S. is acting in good faith, then it reopens the Strait of Hormuz under new management.
A couple of weeks ago, I would’ve written this off as bravado. I don’t anymore.
The biggest thing that has changed is that it has become obvious that President Trump has lost his stomach for pressing to end a very low-casualty war, and a necessary one, in my view, that he initiated. In a CNN interview on Sunday, Trump downplayed the odds of renewed hostilities.
“It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement,” Trump told during a phone interview. “The answer is highly unlikely it’s going to be necessary. They’re a failing nation. It just came out, you saw this year, 301% inflation. Highly unlikely it will be necessary.”
“So it’s highly unlikely I’ll have to,” he went on. “They’re withering away financially. We’ve hit them militarily. We could finish them off.”
We’ve heard this same tired song-and-dance since February, without Iran ever once showing an inclination to deal in good faith, and without Trump ever showing he was willing to coerce them to the bargaining table; read Report: New Strait of Hormuz Accord Nearing, As Iran Seeks Compensation From US – RedState, New: Hormuz Stays Closed Until U.S. Meets Iran’s Sweeping Demands – RedState, and Trump: Iran War to End ‘Immediately After Midterms’ – RedState in sequence.
[Just to clarify the point. I have never believed Iran was bargaining in good faith because I don’t believe the IRGC junta running the show can step back from their maximalist position and because Trump’s reluctance to use military power to force a solution makes them believe they can gut it out. While I think the financial sanctions are laudable, they should’ve started with the bombing. But we can never lose sight of the fact that the IRGC does not care how much pain is inflicted on the Iranian people. Their families and money are safe. In fact, they have relatives elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.]
No honey, you and your terrorist family back home in Iran are evil. Let me expose you again, Congresswoman Yasamin Ansari: Yasamin Ansari is a relative of Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran’s former foreign minister, whom the U.S. Treasury sanctioned for acting on behalf of the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader. The chart below shows how she is connected to him. Bita Daryabari introduced Ansari to NIAC.
NIAC supported her many times. NIAC is a lobbying organization affiliated with the Islamic regime that lobbies Democrats to help it stay in power in Iran. Basically she is the Islamic regime’s representative in a congresswoman’s suit. She’s the one who tweeted the AI ban and caused trillions of dollars lost in the stock market. Now connect the dots and you’ll find out the rest.— Mooné Rahimi (@hiitsmemooneh) November 7, 2026
After Vice President JD Vance’s message laying blame for the GOP defeat squarely on the war, and not on the failure of the administration to even appear to be interested in bringing the war to a close (see Vance’s Explanation for the GOP’s Midterm Disaster Is a Little Too Neat and Tidy – RedState), it became obvious that there was discord within the administration on how to proceed; in the vernacular of my people, they don’t know whether to poop or go blind. The Wall Street Journal describes the situation this way:
With the midterms over, President Trump’s advisers and foreign allies have been racing to shape his decision on whether to end the Iran war or reignite it.
Voters soundly repudiated the war at the ballot box, then Vice President JD Vance questioned whether it was worthwhile on social media. Before that post, Vance told the president that he intended to blame the defeat on the war, U.S. officials said.
Another camp, which includes Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, have supported a return to major combat operations during recent briefings on military options, U.S. officials said. Several hawkish outside advisers have called Trump since Election Day to make the case that his legacy depends on forcing Iran to surrender its nuclear program, which would allow the president to boast the political sacrifice was worth the cost, U.S. officials and another source familiar said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have advocated for tightening sanctions and continuing the blockade on Iranian trade. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, like Vance, has sought Trump’s continued backing for diplomatic efforts for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, officials said. And other outside advisers have also called Trump with the message that it is time to end the war.
Making the matter more complicated is that on Tuesday Iran said if war restarted and the U.S. used bases anywhere in Europe, those bases would be targeted.
“If America uses its bases in Europe, including in Italy and Germany, Iran’s missiles will be fired towards Europe,” Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of parliament’s National Security Committee, told Euronews.
“In the two previous wars we did not do this, but this time we will not let Europe’s assistance to America for an attack on Iran go without consequence;” Ardestani added.
Iran has this theoretical capability. On March 20, it fired two ballistic missiles at the U.S. base at Diego Garcia, some 2,500 miles from Iran. Both missiles failed to hit the target, but the message was that Iran could strike far beyond its self-imposed 1,200 range limit on missiles. That puts virtually all of Western Europe within range; see Watch Iran Totally Nail Itself With a Huge Lie on Missile Capability, Proving Trump Right on Epic Fury – RedState.
Tell me the part about good faith again.
In the words of philosopher and terrorist psychopath Osama bin Laden, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, they will naturally prefer the strong horse.”
In my opinion, I think President Trump is showing himself to be the weak horse in this analogy. It is an open question whether our European allies will allow the use of bases if they are threatened with inaccurate missile attacks. Spain has already put them off limits for combat operations against Iran. The attempted direct action against U.S. aircraft at RAF Fairford probably has Britain wondering if the “special relationship” is worth IEDs going off and ballistic missiles slamming into the UK; see Near‑Miss at RAF Fairford Raises Alarming Questions About UK Counterterror Failures – RedState.
Regionally, the issue is even more fraught. Iran isn’t going anywhere. Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States want to know if they will be dealing with a chastened Iran under new management, or an IRGC-run Iran torqued about its lack of support. Right now, I wouldn’t be shocked to see all our erstwhile allies in the Gulf making pilgrimages to Tehran to try to convince whoever is in charge there that none of this was their idea or had their support.
Everyone wants the war to end. The question is how and on whose terms; see Trump: Iran War to End ‘Immediately After Midterms’ – RedState. While Iran has been pummeled, it retains the political initiative because it has divided President Trump’s inner circle. Part of the administration wants to give up and go home, because “forever wars” or some such nonsense. Part of the administration realizes that kowtowing to Iran to end the war will result in a generational loss of influence in a critical region that will make the aftermath of the Vietnam War pale by comparison. Everyone is watching President Trump to decide what course to pursue, and he doesn’t seem able to make a decision.
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