Now this may be an interesting complication; Iran’s threats to close the straits of Hormuz, along with the United States’ and other nations’ ongoing seizures and sinkings of “ghost fleet” tankers, may end up squeezing two of the Islamic Republic’s few allies, and they are two we should be a little concerned about: Russia and China.
Tehran’s strike campaign threatens to disrupt shadow shipping networks and sanctions-evasion routes, raising energy costs for Moscow and Beijing and potentially squeezing Russia’s war funding and China’s industrial and military supply chains.
As of Monday, the Iranian regime declared the crucial Strait of Hormuz — between Hormuz Island, Iran, and the Omani enclave of Khasab — closed, under threat of vessels being “torched.”
Oil tanker traffic immediately fell sharply as merchant seamen now fear missile strikes, but the conflict has also affected the so-called “shadow fleet” of unflagged or surreptitiously flagged oil tankers connected to economically isolated countries like Cuba, Iran and Russia.
Iran, remember, has been threatening a closure of the Strait of Hormuz for some time. It’s a card the theocracy has always played when they find themselves in a corner. RedState’s own Susie Moore also recently reported that the Trump administration seems determined to keep shipping flowing, and to that end is offering U.S. Navy escorts and risk insurance:
Read More: Report: U.K. Royal Navy Trade Org Says Iran Is Threatening to Close Strait of Hormuz
Maritime Lifeline: Trump Offers Straits of Hormuz Naval Escorts, Political Risk Insurance
Of the two issues – the attempt to close the strait and the crackdown on the ghost fleet – it is the latter, almost certainly, that poses the greater threat to Russia and China. Both countries have been getting oil from Iran, and it’s not at all unlikely that the “big one” that President Trump implied is still to come for Iran may involve the destruction of their capacity to extract, refine, and ship petroleum? If so, would this perceived threat to their energy supply entice Russia and China to intercede on behalf of Iran?
That’s an uncomfortable notion, but an unlikely outcome; here’s why, and I’m going to tell you.
In the first place, the whittling away of ghost fleet ships has been going on for some time now. Neither Russia nor China interceded on behalf of Venezuela, another major supplier of ghost fleet oil. In the second place, a rebuilt, free Iran may well be producing more (unsanctioned) oil and natural gas than ever, and that increase in supply would tend to lower prices – a global benefit. And finally, the United States isn’t alone in intercepting these ships.
European partners have also taken action against “shadow fleet” vessels, tightening the vise on China and particularly Russia amid the new unrest.
Belgium’s army on Monday interdicted a shadow-fleet tanker called the MT Ethera as it transited the North Sea.
Despite some hand-wringing and “expressions of concern,” it looks for the moment like Russia and China are holding their cards pretty close, at least until they have a better idea how all this is going to turn out. Iran doesn’t have many cards left – but the United States and Israel are holding aces over kings.
Editor’s Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all.
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