The recalls have wrapped up in Taiwan, with the first round held on July 26 and the second on August 23. All of the 31 China-friendly Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers on the ballot retained their seats.
Grassroots organizations initiated the recalls in response to KMT legislators’ controversial pro-Beijing stances and actions, from undisclosed trips to China and meetings with CCP officials, to the freezing of Taiwan’s military budget and legislation that would allow military personnel and officials to pledge allegiance to China. Another central issue was the KMT’s efforts to expand the Legislative Yuan’s powers—clearly intended to overpower Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, also the chairman of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
This comes at a time when China continues to ramp up its military exercises around the island and its gray-zone attacks.
The results of the “Great Recall Movement” hold some key takeaways.
It appears that KMT lawmakers will be further emboldened to take action against the DPP’s agenda. They are likely to oppose any type of proposal the DPP puts forward to bolster the island’s defenses and may even look to place controversial pro-China figures in various party positions.
Some individuals have criticized the Lai administration’s approach to dealing with the KMT as inflexible. President Lai’s recent conciliatory remarks expressing his willingness to work with the KMT on matters of mutual interest contradict this assertion. It is yet to be seen how this plays out, but it may be the case that the KMT will reject this peace offering.
After all, KMT officials framed the democratic practice of recalls—enshrined in Taiwan’s constitution—as political persecution, echoing Beijing’s propaganda. KMT lawmakers had also threatened to remove President Lai earlier in the year.
How far President Lai would be willing to go to compromise with the KMT also remains a question, given his administration’s focus on bolstering Taiwan’s security. Compromise can go only so far when the other side views procuring weapons, preparing the island’s forces, developing its asymmetric defense capabilities, and addressing Chinese infiltration as “provocative” actions.
Political stalemate, along with an emboldened KMT, also carries implications for U.S.-Taiwan and cross-strait relations.
It is possible that President Lai’s plan to increase the military budget will be met with resistance from the KMT once again. Earlier this year, the KMT froze Taiwan’s military budget, garnering criticism from U.S. lawmakers. The KMT decided to unfreeze the budget prior to the recalls in an attempt to mitigate negative public opinion.
KMT obstruction of Taiwan’s military spending and defense development would undoubtedly frustrate Washington, as the Trump administration has repeatedly called for Taiwan to raise its defense spending to 10 percent of its GDP. Such inaction may contribute to tension between Taipei and Washington, causing the U.S. government to question Taiwan’s commitment to its national defense and its support for U.S.-led deterrence in the Asia-Pacific.
Even worse, China-friendly legislation pushed through by the KMT to intentionally negate President Lai’s foreign policy priorities would have the potential to inflame U.S.-Taiwan relations, possibly resulting in punitive measures by Washington.
Nevertheless, President Lai’s proposed defense spending increase to 5 percent of GDP by 2030 still falls short of what the Trump administration is asking for. Perhaps Lai should consider reallocating US $29.99 billion from his green transition to national defense—a move that would pay greatly for Taiwan and the region.
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2030 may also be too late, with U.S. officials claiming that Xi has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027, though certain factors could influence China’s readiness to launch a full-scale invasion.
Some arguments assert that the outcome of the recalls may somewhat placate the CCP, at least for the time being, as Beijing might interpret it as the Taiwanese electorate’s preference for the status quo of divided government rather than for a consolidated government under Lai that opposes the CCP.
However, there is nothing that leads me to believe that Chinese military forces will let up in their efforts to intimidate the island, infiltrate Taiwanese society, and prepare for a full-scale invasion. The Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan as integral to its nation-building project now more than ever, even though Taiwan is an independent country that has never been governed by the People’s Republic of China.
If anything, Beijing will double down in the coming months. The CCP is likely to view the results of this failed recall vote as an opportunity to escalate its influence operations to weaken Taiwan internally and as a limit on the Lai government’s efforts to counter China, all of which may trigger more monitoring and engagement by the U.S.
Despite all the potential challenges ahead, the recalls serve as a reminder of how secure and transparent Taiwan’s elections are. This is particularly timely as President Trump seeks to eliminate mail-in ballots in the U.S. to address voter fraud.
TRUMP: “WE’RE GOING TO END MAIL-IN VOTING — IT’S A FRAUD!”pic.twitter.com/1BMDt8DYE6
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) August 18, 2025
READ MORE: Next Up on the Trump Agenda: Let’s Get Rid of Mail-in Ballots and Voting Machines
In Taiwan, only in-person voting on paper ballots is permitted. Voters are also required to provide a valid government-issued photo ID in order to participate.
Taiwan also uses a manual ballot counting method, open to the public, where a poll worker reads each ballot aloud, displaying it for everyone to see, while another poll worker is tasked with recording the results on a board.
CCP interference campaigns that aim to manipulate public opinion via social media and other avenues remain an issue, but that is a separate discussion. The way in which Taiwan conducts its elections can and should serve as an example for the free world.
The time between now and the 2028 Taiwanese legislative election will be particularly critical, so watch closely. Rest assured that the Trump administration is also keeping a close eye on Taiwan, as deterring China is set to be a key pillar of the 2025 National Defense Strategy.
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