Will miracles never cease? Could a Republican in the Great Lakes State actually WIN a Senate seat in November and go to Washington?
I do not want to get too wound up about this, but someone from the GOP running for a Senate seat in Michigan is looking pretty good six months out from the 2026 general election. Some of you may be thinking I’m being a bit harsh, yet given the dim prospects for anyone with an R after their name running for a Senate seat here over the past 32 years, there is a reason for that pessimism, which I will cover later.
The matchup will be decided in August, and for the Republican Party, it will be Mike Rogers, while the Democrats have possibly three (damaged) candidates; the person leading at the moment is Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
From the Detroit News…
Republican Mike Rogers holds a narrow 2-percentage-point lead in head-to-head matchups against Democrats Haley Stevens and Mallory McMorrow, representing a statistical dead heat in a new statewide survey of 600 likely Michigan voters.
In hypothetical matchups, Rogers got 43.8% support to Stevens’ 41.5%, while Rogers got 42.8% to McMorrow’s 40.7% ― both results falling within the survey’s margin of error of plus-minus 4 percentage points.
Rogers held a wider lead of nearly 5 percentage points when facing physician Abdul El-Sayed of Ann Arbor, 44.7% to 39.8%.
Why are some of these Democrats so close?
I would love to say polling and tricking people, but the fact of the matter is, Michigan is a bit of a purple (blue more than purple) state. Trump won here in 2016 by close to 11,000 votes (47.7% to 47.5%) and in 2024 by 80,000 (49.7% to 48.3%), which is close no matter how you slice it.
I get into arguments all the time about why this state is not run by Republicans, and I have to remind whoever I’m having this discussion with of the simple fact of the matter, which is this. We are not Florida or Texas, not growing generally like southern states are, and the cost of living here is usually higher in the Great Lakes State than in southern states.
People vote with their feet, and every Michiganian knows someone who was born here or lived here at some point who has fled the state. That is a solid indicator that people are leaving Michigan for greener pastures.
The Republicans Announce Their 2026 Senate Targets
No question the Rogers campaign has a long way to go, but at least they are still in the game, and it is only May. Given that he ran in 2024 against Senator Elissa Slotkin and barely lost by just over 19,000 votes, my hope is that, with President Trump’s endorsement, he will be able to take the seat.
But, as noted, we still have a long way to go.
But pollster Richard Czuba, whose Glengariff Group firm conducted the new survey, said Rogers faces a significant hurdle in the number of undecided voters remaining in each matchup with the Democratic candidates, including 14.7% undecided when he faces Stevens, 15.5% against El-Sayed and 16.5% against McMorrow, according to the poll results.
That amazes me at this point; yet it worries me a little. Having lived in the state my whole life, other than for the magnificent time that John Engler was Governor, it has been brutal being a conservative in this state.
Hopefully, former Congressman Rogers will become Senator Rogers and end the three-decade streak of a GOP candidate not winning the seat.
Hopefully.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Help RedState continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
