We now have less than a week until the 2026 midterm elections.
In the House of Representatives, the GOP currently has a 218-plus-one (nominal independent) majority, versus 214 Democrats, with two vacancies. In the House, the numbers that are won by the parties are often determined by the over- or under-exposure of the respective parties. In this cycle, the GOP benefited from its minimal exposure.
The GOP solidified itself with gerrymandering, which probably means that the Democrats need a generic lead of 4.9 percent just to win the majority. The Republicans also raised “yuge” amounts of cash and are now outspending Democrats. They have unleashed an unprecedentedly broad Get-Out-the-Vote push online. This is a big reversal from earlier election cycles.
President Donald Trump’s RealClearPolitics average approval is at 38.4 percent. The congressional generic vote gives the Democrats an 8-point margin, although there has been a late tightening of the polls near the end. This public polling is in blue wave territory. Of course, all this public polling has a bias towards the Democrats, thanks largely to the likely over-sampling of leftist voters, and the under-sampling of right-wing voters, particularly in red states. Trump’s pollster has expressed his belief that the bias is deliberate. And there are even actual fake polls.
GOP pollster Matt Towery has commented on his own polling, and others, which show a tremendous positive for the GOP – a “Silver Wave”:
“Yes GOP voters do appear slightly less enthusiastic to vote…But there is another definite wave we are seeing. Voters 65 and over are the most enthusiastic to vote of all demographics. And they have moved back to the GOP in big numbers.”
Overall, polling seems to indicate that this will be a battle of the bases, as swing voters are apathetic. It also doesn’t seem to show that gas prices are a crucial factor. And it demonstrates that partisan internal Democrat polls seem to be padding the Democrat margin.
The registration battle also seems to have come out in the Republicans’ favor.
Now, we have the early vote to analyze. The GOP is doing well in AZ, TX, AK, MI, OR, ME, IA, and neutral in WI, FL, PA, NY, NE, and OH. Meanwhile, GA, NV, KS, VA, SC, NC, and NJ are experiencing blue waves or worse. Young voters, whom most pollsters have as strongly Democrat, so far have not come out.
The MSM has been incessantly pushing doom about the Republicans’ prospects, largely based on the polling. They do this partly as a deliberate strategy to depress the GOP voters and Republican fundraising, but also because they want to believe that the end to their Trump nightmare is just around the corner. Some Republicans have succumbed to this gloom.
Of course, my gloomy buddy Cameron has long since given up.
However, Trump is keeping up the good fight, going from state to state to hold massive rallies. This is what a president should do. Speaking as an observer who remembers the Bush (II) years, I greatly appreciate this fighting spirit. In 2005, George W. Bush stopped battling the Democrats, and partly as a result, the GOP was “thumped” in 2006 and 2008.
It should be noted that the president is campaigning in mostly Republican areas. The MSM will claim this is a sign of the GOP being in a bad electoral spot. This is true, but only to a certain extent. Because of gerrymandering, for the Democrats to win the House (and the Senate), they must win many seats that are tilted Republican. Also, polling so far has shown that some GOP voters – usually considered the more traditional voters (non-MAGA) – are depressed, and the president presumably wants to get them more enthusiastic.
Which brings up an interesting point. The MSM’s push of a message of doom could be a double-edged sword. Republicans could end up depressed by this drumbeat and choose not to vote. But GOP voters could also become more determined to vote, to stick it to the MSM. Or they could become so fearful of a big national loss that they vote in unprecedented numbers to protect their local House (Senate) member.
However, there may be another concern for the GOP. Towery has expressed his alarm about the War in Iran:
“As we look at early voting it is becoming clear that a certain portion of the GOP base is not planning on voting. The GOP message in terms of paid ads has failed to explain why action on Iran was needed and what the consequences of a nuclear Iran would be. It is the ‘elephant in the room’ that must be addressed big time as the closing message.”
I am a supporter of the Iran War, for reasons I have already clarified. Yet, when it was initiated, I was surprised by the president’s decision not to speak officially to the American people. In the 80s, when I was a teen, President George H. W. Bush (I) held multiple prime-time addresses explaining himself regarding both Panama and Iraq.
I believe it would be prudent for the GOP to follow Towery’s suggestion.
The House predictions, by both Republicans and Democrats, universally show the Democrats with the edge in the battle for the House. But they are widely disparate in how many seats the Democrats will end up with, from 219 all the way up to 237. The RCP shows them at around 235.
Here is my thinking. I believe that the GOP’s floor is around 200. So, my maximum pick-up for the Democrats is around 20 seats. If the polls underestimate the GOP by 3 percent, the Republicans could actually hold the House with a bare majority. But I don’t believe that will happen. My best guess is that there will be a 2 percent Democrat overestimation, similar to 2024’s presidential race, which will leave us with a Democrat House majority of around 230 seats. This will be a red undertow.
But I guess “We’ll (Just Have to) See What Happens.”
PS: Speaking of the final countdown…
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
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